For over a decade I have been on Facebook I have used the medium to engage in high wire political punditry.
Many followers and visitors to my Timeline would concede to me the self indulgence of regarding myself as a sort of political Nostradamus. There has been some misses like when I wagered that Trump will not be President and rooted for Hilary Clinton. I lost my bet.
My high point however was when I called the election peremptorily for the Amir in 2015, and advised Ebele to place a phone call to him and concede the election.
Heaven was let loose on my wall and I got a thorough bashing from friends and foes alike. It was sweet vindication that evening when Ebele made that call and history was made.
I will make another wager as we await anxiously for the resolution of the political quagmire thrown at us by the Prof Yakubu INEC which announced Capo BAT winner of the 2023 Presidential election prematurely and against the run of play.
With the state of pleadings at the Court of Appeal sitting as a Presidential Election Petition Tribunal its clear that issues have been essentially joined and by 17th the next adjourned date the fireworks will commence.
I predict this stage at first instance would be fast tracked. A judgement is possible before the 29th of May. I so submit for the following reasons.
1. The FCT question. Whether the threshold of 25% minimum votes here is part of two thirds of the 36 states or on its own. The crucial test here is interpretation of the word ‘AND’.
2. The question of the double nomination of the Running Mate of Capo BAT, Shettima.
3. The issue of Capo BAT disqualification by reason of the forfeiture of over $400k in the USA for drug/narcotics related matter.
The other issues of substantial non compliance, and abandonment of its guidelines on BVAS accreditation and transmission, I want to suspend for now. I am also trying to avoid legal gooblydook since many of us are not learned persons. This is a complete idiots guide to the matter at hand.
The Tribunal could dispose of the three issues above by next week. These are legal questions that don’t need oral evidence of witnesses.
Just plain tendering of documents and legal arguments that have already been uploaded. The next is to reserve judgment and deliver it within forty eight hours. Reasons could be given later.
This is not novel as it was used after the 1983 elections.
If the Tribunal agrees with the petitioners then there is a serious problem for Naija. Yes the law is that until the final resolution by the ultimate Court in this case the Supreme Court, the person declared elected shall remain in office. But this is a novel situation.
The INEC declared winner has not been sworn in so following the doctrine of necessity it would be immoral to swear him in.
There is nothing sacrosanct about 29th May. The Constitution has a provision to take care of that situation by allowing the last person in that office to continue until his successor is sworn in.
For the sake of the nation, for the sake of our international image and for nation stability and cohesion if we tarry for about two weeks or even a month for the final resolution of the matter, it would be for the best interest of Nigeria.
Let’s rap again on 29th May by 12 noon. Will not mention the predictions of the Prophet from Ghana. He seems spot on.
Chief Maxi Okwu, a politician and public affairs analyst writes from Enugu, Nigeria.
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