The September 21 Edo State gubernatorial poll was not just an election, but a reckoning—one that exposed the cracks, betrayals, and missteps of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) under Governor Godwin Obaseki’s leadership. In the end, Asue Ighodalo, Obaseki’s anointed candidate, suffered a painful defeat.
The All Progressives Congress (APC) emerged victorious, with Monday Okpebholo claiming the seat of power. This defeat wasn’t just about numbers, it was the culmination of political miscalculations and fractured alliances.
Okpebholo polled 291,667 votes to defeat his close rival, Ighodalo of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) who secured 247,274 votes. The Labour Party candidate, Olumide Akpata, came distant third with 22,763 votes.
There are concerns about heavy financial inducements, instances of underage voting, security deployment, arrest of senior party officials intercepted while trying to commit various electoral offences. These are issues for another day.
As the saying goes, “When the bird perches too high, the hunter’s arrow reaches further.” Obaseki’s arrogance, mismanagement of political relationships, and disregard for his allies turned former friends into formidable foes. In reading the political leaves, I’ll try to dissects the reasons behind the PDP’s loss and how Obaseki’s personal and political failings nailed Ighodalo’s political coffin.
The Ghosts of 2020: Obaseki vs Oshiomhole, Round Two
The election was as much about old rivalries as it was about new ambitions. Obaseki, once the beneficiary of political goodwill from his estranged godfather, Adams Oshiomhole, had settled comfortably in his second term. But his relationship with Oshiomhole, which had been acrimonious since the 2020 elections, continued to cast a shadow over governance in the state. Many political watchers would argue that the seeds of PDP’s defeat were sown when Obaseki and Oshiomhole began their feud—a fight that left Obaseki isolated and vulnerable, politically speaking.
Despite Obaseki’s bold claims, the APC’s stronghold in Edo North Senatorial District remained intact. It was no surprise that the APC dominated six of the seven local governments in that region, given that Oshiomhole still wielded significant influence.
“The sky is large enough for all birds to fly, but they must remember where they perched,” goes the popular adage.
Obaseki seemed to have forgotten the roots of his initial political ascent. His inability to mend fences with powerful actors such as Oshiomhole contributed significantly to Ighodalo’s defeat.
Wike: The Outsider with the Last Laugh
Nyesom Wike, former governor of Rivers State and now Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, does not run from a fight…he also played a pivotal role in PDP’s downfall. Once a staunch supporter of Obaseki in 2020, Wike turned his back on his former ally after their public fallout. Wike, in fact, apologised to Oshiomhole for “helping” Obaseki win re-election in 2020. His refusal to back Ighodalo sent shockwaves through the PDP camp.
Obaseki, however, dismissed Wike’s importance in the election, famously quipping that Edo people did not need an “outsider” to determine their electoral choices. But this underestimation of Wike’s influence backfired. In politics, alliances are often forged not in the heat of passion but in the cool corridors of mutual interest. Obaseki’s arrogance blinded him to the damage his severed relationships were doing to his party’s chances.
Some even questioned why INEC would appoint Anugbum Onuoha, Wike’s cousin as Resident Electoral Officer for the Edo gubernatorial polls.
Shaibu’s Defection: The Domino Effect
Perhaps one of the most critical blows to PDP’s chances was the defection of Obaseki’s former deputy, Philip Shaibu. Once a loyal ally who fought alongside Obaseki in 2020, Shaibu had his own gubernatorial ambitions, but Obaseki stifled them. This ‘political betrayal’ led to Shaibu’s eventual defection to the APC, taking along with him key PDP members and support.
Shaibu’s departure was symbolic; it was more than just a transfer of political allegiance—it was a crack in the PDP’s foundation. Like the Nigerian saying, “the chicken that pecks too much on its own feathers leaves itself bare to the cold,” Obaseki’s inability to manage internal party dynamics cost his candidate, Ighodalo, crucial votes.
The Labour Party’s Disconnect and Overreliance on Online Polls
While the APC and PDP were duking it out, the Labour Party (LP) trailed in third place, raising questions about what went wrong. The LP had emerged as a formidable force during the 2023 elections but seemed to falter at the state level. Analysts point to a disconnect at the national executive level and poor grassroots mobilisation in Edo. Relying too heavily on online polls and failing to conduct necessary ward elections left the party with little on-the-ground support.
In Edo, as in much of Nigeria, politics is not won in the airwaves of social media where there are no polling units but in the dusty streets and local communities. In spite of picking a candidate from Edo state which has the highest voting population, the Labour Party’s failure to appreciate this reality ensured that they remained on the sidelines during this election.
Democracy, Poverty, and Obaseki’s Performance
A major undertone of the election was the state of Edo’s economy and governance. Obaseki had campaigned in 2020 on a platform of reform and development, but by 2024, many voters felt that these promises had fallen flat. Poverty remained widespread, and Obaseki’s economic interventions were seen as insufficient. In a country where hunger often dictates the ballot, Obaseki’s perceived failure to address the economic challenges of his people led to a wave of disillusionment.
“A hungry man is an angry man.” Edo’s electorate was not convinced by the rhetoric of Asue Ighodalo, and they showed this dissatisfaction at the polls.
A Battle That Will End in the Tribunal
Though the election results are in, the battle is far from over. It will undoubtedly “end in the tribunal,” as accusations of electoral irregularities and partisan maneuvers fly from both camps.
For Obaseki and the PDP, this defeat was the result of arrogance, broken alliances, and political miscalculations.
Chief Nana Atori of blessed memory would say, “the axe forgets, but the tree remembers.” Those whom Obaseki alienated did not forget, and in the end, they came together to nail Ighodalo’s political coffin shut.
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