The candidate of the Labour Party, Peter Obi appears to be the favorite for the Aso rock top job, for the umpteenth time.
Remember our two previous polls predicted a victory for the LP candidate ahead of the February 25th presidential elections, but this time, he has widened the margin by a significant proportion.
Peter Obi appears to be the favorite for the Aso rock top job
For this analysis, we used a sample size of 7,400 persons with PVCs, 200 persons per state including the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja. Data was obtained using a direct questionnaire and was analyzed using SPSS. For each state, 200 persons were sampled; 100 persons for the people in rural areas, and 100 for the urban dwellers. The results show that an overwhelming majority of respondents will vote LP, especially people aged between 18 to 39 who account for 68% of the votes the party scored in the poll.
In a twist of events, Atiku Abubakar who was the second runner up in our previous polls, has overtaken the APC candidate Bola Ahmed Tinubu to trail Peter Obi, albeit by a very wide margin. With majority of his support coming from NW and NE, one could conclude that the Core North are seriously backing the former vice-president, and with the recent Naira crunch which ultimately birthed hardship in the country and which didn’t go down too well with the people in the North, the support of APC has drastically dwindled across the country, especially in these two regions.
APC however can brag about the SW region with the exclusion of Tinubu’s acclaimed stronghold, Lagos, were LP scored a staggering 61% of the votes as against their 33% and PDP’s 6%. The poll projects LP to sweep up votes in the SE, SS, and NC, whilst scoring significantly high and coming second in the SW only behind APC’s Tinubu.
The NW and NE appear to be LP’s weakest links with the exception of Kaduna and Taraba as they managed to score 18% and 21% respectively of the sampled votes, but polled 45% and 29% respectively in the aforementioned exempted states.
Kwankwaso’s NNPP which according to many is considered a ‘spoiler’ and not in the race, managed to score 32% in Kano, trailing only the winner, Atiku who is projected to win the state with the 38% score he secured in the poll. NNPP failed to secure a single vote in all southern states where he scored 0% in SE, SS, and SW, but managed to accrue 12% in the NW, 7% in NC and 2% in the NE.
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